It looks like the party's over!

The only decent thing about the recent elections was the fact that the BNP didn’t win in Carlisle. Labour lost two seats to the Tories and in the ward where I reside – St. Aidan’s – the Labour incumbent retained her seat. The BNP, despite pushing all manner of racist garbage through the letterboxes of these streets in recent weeks, were well and truly defeated. Nationally the BNP polled much worse than expected due to the relatively high turn out. The most high-profile victory was Richard Barnbrook in Dagenham. I’m sorry to say that he used to be a teacher.

Overall, the Labour party were completely annihilated on Thursday. Parties of government are expected to do badly in local elections. Blair received an electoral ‘bloody nose’ prior to the General Election of 2005. However, this defeat for Gordon Brown was worse, much worse. So bad in fact that Labour have not fared so badly since 1968. Back then Harold Wilson was in Number 10 and within two year he was defeated by the Heathite Conservatives. Brown knows his history – the man who waited his entire political life for his current job must now face the real possibility that it will come to an abrupt end in 2010, barely three years after Blair handed over the reins and hardly long enough for Brown to fulfil his potential. It also ought to be remembered that Blair never faced an election off the back of an economy in recession. Governments survive or fall by their handling of the economy and that which saved Blair may be Brown’s downfall.

Martin Kettle writes in today’s Guardian that the great New Labour experiment is over. The party which for so long wasted away in the doldrums of the left has now come ‘full circle’ and the Conservative party are once again returning to their natural role of governing party – I say ‘natural’ because history shows the Tories have held power the longest. If Labour are defeated in 2010 – and that now looks highly likely – the party will face an interesting predicament. It will undoubtedly have to reform. Steering the same path will be out of the question. Cameron has always been a big fan of Blair and his government will be the natural heir of Blairism. Even though a return to the days of 1983 would be catastrophic, I see little alternative to a leftward shift for the party. Quite clearly it will have to define itself in opposition to the new Conservative government. Thatcherism has become Blairism – the torch will soon pass to Cameron and a leftist alternative is now the only option for Labour. I’m not talking about socialism – quite simply the party needs to return to its core values of justice, equality and standing up for the working man. Recently, it has been the party’s failure to do this which has given rise to the exploitative tactics of the BNP. The white working class feel disenfranchised by Labour (the proposed abolition of the 10p tax rate was the epitome of this and the most symbolic aspect of Labour's abandonment of the working classes) – the party needs to a new reforming agenda which will reach out to its core constituency. The sooner it does this the better. Whether this can be done before 2010 is questionable. In any case, I cannot see it saving Gordon Brown who now finds himself in the same position as John Major in 1995 – two years to go as a ‘lame duck’ Prime Minister.